Wednesday, August 17, 2022

NOAA: Above-Average Hurricane Season Still Expected

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) provided an updated forecast for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season in early August, sticking with its initial prediction of an above-normal number of storms, but scaling it back slightly. According to the agency, forecasters now suggest a 60% chance of an above-normal season (vs. 65% in its initial outlook), along with a 30% chance of an average season and only a 10% chance of a below-average season. The updated forecast predicts 14-20 named storms, of which 6-10 are expected to become hurricanes, including 3-5 major hurricanes.

While there had been only three named storms (and no hurricanes) in the Atlantic as of August 15, NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad noted in the August 1 update that “we’re just getting into the peak months of August through October for hurricane development, and we anticipate that more storms are on the way.” The official hurricane season runs through November 30, although recent years have seen several “out of season” tropical storms and hurricanes.