CSU's center for Tropical Weather and Climate Research issued its annual forecast in early April, predicting 19 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes this year, versus the 30-year average from 1991-2020 of 14.4, 7.2 and 3.2 respectively.
The forecasters noted that "Current weak La Niña conditions look fairly likely to transition to neutral ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) by this summer/fall, but the odds of a significant El Niño seem unlikely. Sea surface temperatures averaged across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic are currently near average, while Caribbean and subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are warmer than normal. We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean."
The researchers concluded, "As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted."
Hams living in hurricane-prone areas should first make sure that they and their families are well-prepared for hurricane damage and extended power outages, then take advantage of available training through FEMA, the National Weather Service and local emergency communication groups in order to be able to help effectively if needed.
Amateurs in potentially-affected areas should monitor the Hurricane Watch Net on 14.325 MHz USB during the day and 7.268 MHz LSB at night. The net is activated whenever a tropical system reaches hurricane status and is within 300 miles of a populated land area, or at the request of forecasters. For more information on the Hurricane Watch Net, visit <www.hwn.org>.
